The global carbon budget: A critical countdown

he Paris Agreement set a vital goal to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this, humanity must adhere to a strict carbon budget—the maximum amount of additional carbon dioxide (CO₂) we can release into the atmosphere. However, only around 17% of this budget remains, leaving us with approximately 10 years at current emission rates to act decisively.

A narrow margin of error

Scientific uncertainty complicates this dire scenario. As indicated by the error margins in the global carbon cycle, there’s a small but alarming possibility that our remaining carbon budget is already zero. This would mean that even if all emissions stopped today, the planet could still warm beyond the 1.5°C threshold.

Understanding the carbon cycle

To manage and mitigate this crisis, we need precise data on carbon stocks (the amount of carbon stored in the atmosphere, oceans, and terrestrial biosphere) and fluxes (the rate at which carbon flows between these reservoirs). Forests, as major carbon sinks, are a key component of this equation. Their biomass serves as a proxy for stored carbon, making them essential to understanding and managing the global carbon cycle.

ESA’s biomass mission

The European Space Agency’s (ESA) Biomass mission is poised to play a pivotal role in addressing critical gaps in our knowledge. Using advanced remote sensing technology, the mission will measure forest biomass, height, and disturbances. These insights will enhance our understanding of carbon storage and fluxes, offering data critical to global climate strategies.

A call to action

The urgency of the carbon budget underscores the importance of immediate, coordinated global efforts to reduce emissions and protect natural carbon sinks. The science is clear: the longer we delay action, the narrower our window for a sustainable future becomes.

Source: ESA, Global Carbon Project
License: ESA Standard License. Additional permissions may be required.

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